The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World by Michael SpenceIt had 5 stars right up to the end...where it lost one.
As a previous update while I was reading it said, its a brilliant book, and should be considered a must-read for anyone who wants or is going to claim they know whats happening in developing markets, China, India, Africa, currency exchange rates, the EU, etc. You might find yourself looking at the USA national debt differently, as well as the policies and plans (real or perceived) of China in regards to their economy, the so-called artificial pegging of the Yuan to the US Dollar, and their domestic investment policies.
So what about that one star?
Well, part of the draw of this book is to set awareness and consideration for the changing environmental and energy conditions of the rapidly changing global market against the focus on pure economic growth which pervades all of the thoughts and writings of modern economists. However thoughts on climate change, carbon, and potential energy shortages are dealt with in a fairly offhand and unrealistic manner. He reveals his cards to be merely the same lines were fed by other economists whos sole focus in life is the eternal pursuit of as large of a growth percentage number as is possible. His only detailed thoughts on any environmental policies consist of advocating carbon credits for the advanced countries and deliberately leaving developing nations out of it, due to the thought that theyll just sell off their credits for huge capital inflows, which while it makes sense, somehow the environmental baby gets lost in a lot of financial bathwater. I personally think the carbon credit system is a band-aid on a festering wound, meaning it provides a mostly cosmetic and political solution without dealing with the actual problem, resulting in the eventual demise of the patient, but even my opinion aside, the scale and timeline of his solutions (I hesitate to even call them that) can be boiled down to:
#1: doing mostly nothing for about 20 years.
#2: not doing so MUCH damage after about 50 years.
A lot of people dont feel thats either realistic or remotely effective. It DOES however make perfect economic sense, and wouldnt effect growth rates in any countries, which I guess is more important to him, and people like him. Im certainly not amongst that group.
Past that, I felt the end of the book dealt with environmental issues as a fantasy of an afterthought, and entirely ignored energy policy. Considering the USA has a proud history of not actually having an energy policy, I guess I shouldnt be surprised. Included at the end of the book is a pointless retelling of the history of the internet which seems to have no place in the book.
This book has a great 3 first parts, and the opening bits of the 4th part are good. Its a brilliant book up to that point, but perhaps the author shows his age after that, approaching climate change, potential energy shortages, and future potential of technology in information systems with the jaded eyes of an older man who senses instinctively that whatever events, problems, and solutions will take place with those factors will probably happen after his passing. Its still a book you should read. Hell, if youre involved with finance, investment, economic development, global trade, you MUST read it. If you would actually like to understand how the largely older, wealthy, white, male, euro-USA people who for the most part move the global economic world view environmental policy, which rather than being mustache-twisting fiends looking to destroy the world for the all-mighty dollar are instead well-intentioned but ultimately misguided people looking for the all-mighty dollar for EVERYONE in all nations, you need to read this book.
But to speak personally, its nice to think the entire world could be advanced, educated, and more or less wealthy, but its also really hard to spend money when youre dead for any number of reasons. I think that perhaps a more drastic solution will be required, and that the future of the world isnt an eternal growth rate driven by the constant creative destruction of existing business and consequent rebuilding of the worlds business infrastructure, but instead a constantly shifting world devoted to a new type of economic sustainability, where business and individuals move sideways more often than down, and the market is built less on the destruction of competition, and more on the required agreement of joint operations. The competitive free-market is effective, but as Mr. Spence himself points out, to actually work from the viewpoint of both the economy AND the individual, must be backed up by a massive social safety net which there seems to be a lacking force of capital and political will to re-enforce or create. I feel obligated to point out that a safety net is only required when one is doing something dangerous. Dismiss my thoughts as mindless socialist utopia if you like, but I think that barring a catastrophic environmental event or resource driven collapse of society such as climate change, peak oil, etc., the new concept of sustainable economics is an inevitable development, as certain as the sun follows the moon. Youre free to bark at the moon if you like, but it wont actually change anything.
If Poor Nations Want Economic Convergence and Capital Accumulation, They Need Good Policy
Some low-income and middle-income economies around the world have shown a pattern of convergence , in which their economies grow faster than those of high-income countries. GDP increased by an average rate of 2. The final portion of Table 5 shows GDP growth rates for the countries of the world divided by income. Each of the countries in Table 5 has its own unique story of investments in human and physical capital, technological gains, market forces, government policies, and even lucky events, but an overall pattern of convergence is clear. The low-income countries have GDP growth that is faster than that of the middle-income countries, which in turn have GDP growth that is faster than that of the high-income countries. Some prominent members of the slow-growth club are high-income countries like the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan. Will this pattern of economic convergence persist into the future?
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James Bullard — Bio Vita. In this report, find out how banks, foundations, CDFIs and others are engaged in impact investing in St. Louis Fed is assembling members of its six advisory councils, representing a geographically and industry-diverse group of stakeholders. The low- or middle-income trap phenomenon has been widely studied in recent years. Although economic growth during the postwar period has lifted many low-income economies from poverty to a middle-income level and other economies to even higher levels of income, very few countries have been able to catch up with the high per capita income levels of the developed world and stay there. As a result, relative to the U.
convergence in income would indicate convergence in living standards. published by the United Nations Development Programme. .. Looking at Figure 3, it seems that the world distribution of log per capita income levels has developed.
handling a breakup with class
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Please take this quick survey to tell us about what happens after you publish a paper. Social Indicators Research. These studies take into accountthe growth of per capita gross domesticproduct or labor productivity as a measure ofstandard of living. The present study measuresthe standard of living in terms of theindicators reflecting the quality of life ofthe inhabitants of the country rather thanincome or productivity and examines whetherstandards of living converge across economiesover a fairly long period of time, such as 35years — In this connection, the paperfollows the straightforward approach to testinter-country convergence which relates therate of growth of income GDP per capita withinitial income. The convergence tests for theindicators reflecting quality of life of humanbeings, such as, infant survival rate, lifeexpectancy at birth, adult literacy rate,calorie intake as percentage of requirement forthe full sample as well as for three incomegroups indicate that in almost for all thecases for all the indicators divergence isobserved rather than convergence.
It is not clear from the question whether you are talking about cities,, countries, regions or the whole world. Presently, the world is more urbanised than it has ever been and the trend will likely continue. To answer your question, living standards across within most of the cities in developing countries are diverging. Most divergence is within rapidly expanding and urbanising cities in developing countries with weak social nets. These include countries such as India, South Africa, etc. Across cities in the developed world such as the EU, Japan, etc most people have basic necessities and they are covered by social security. As these cities get richer, more tax money is collected which results in better public services.